Objective：To investigate the priorities of each factor influencing the casualties in refugees living in border areas, so as to provide evidence for casualty forecasting in the refugees. Methods： We summarized the factors affecting the refugee casualty in the border area through searching and reviewing the related literatures. The identified factors were classified into 3 levels and the quantitative index system was established by using Delphi method, i.e. expert consulting method. The names and the meanings of each index were revised according to experts＇ suggestions after 3 rounds of consulting. The weights of each index were determined by analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and comparing-reordering method. Results.. A 3-level quantitative system was successfully constructed, which consisted of 4 first level indices （including natural factors, social factors, medical factors, and war factors）, 12 second level indices, and 37 third level indices; the weights of all indices were determined. Conclusion：The result of our study can be used in predicting refugee casualty and provide a reference for the medical service of refugees living in the border areas