Application of ARIMA model in forecasting monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis
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Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (30872160) and Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing Science and Technology Committee (CSTC,2009BB5415).
Objective To investigate the variation of the monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis with time in Chongqing, so to provide a scientific evidence for the control and prevention of tuberculosis. Methods Using the SPSS 13.0 software, we established an ARIMA model with the monthly incidence data of smear-positive tuberculosis (2005-2009), and the model was used to forecast the monthly incidence of Jan. 2010 to Dec. 2010. The short-term forecasting efficacy was evaluated. Results The established ARIMA (1,1,0)×(0,1,1)12 model was suitable for forecasting the monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis in Chongqing. The observed values of 2005-2009 were in the 95% confidence interval of the fitted values, and the average relative error of the predictive value was 6.31% for 2010. Conclusion ARIMA (1,1,0)×(0,1,1)12 model can satisfactorily forecast the monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis in Chongqing, which provides a reliable evidence for control and prevention of tuberculosis.