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连续性肾脏替代治疗脓毒症急性肾损伤恶性肿瘤患者预后预测模型的构建
徐业好1,代元强1,孙昊然2,万小健2*
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(1. 海军军医大学(第二军医大学)第一附属医院麻醉科, 上海 200433;
2. 海军军医大学(第二军医大学)第一附属医院重症医学科, 上海 200433
*通信作者)
摘要:
目的 基于脓毒症急性肾损伤(AKI)恶性肿瘤患者的凝血及炎症指标构建连续性肾脏替代疗法(CRRT)预后的预测模型。方法 纳入我院2020年1月至2021年12月收治的79例CRRT治疗的脓毒症AKI恶性肿瘤患者为研究对象,根据患者CRRT治疗后28 d内的预后情况分为死亡组(n=20)和存活组(n=59)。对两组患者的基本资料及治疗前、治疗6 h、治疗12 h时的凝血功能和炎症指标进行比较,将差异有统计学意义的变量纳入logistic回归分析,以明确影响脓毒症AKI恶性肿瘤患者CRRT预后的危险因素。结果 与治疗前相比,CRRT治疗6 h、12 h时患者的血小板计数、D-二聚体、纤维蛋白原、白细胞计数、中性粒细胞比例、CRP、前降钙素原(PCT)、IL-6、IL-8均下降,而凝血酶原时间、活化部分凝血活酶时间、国际标准化比值均上升(P均<0.05)。糖尿病、高血压病、肿瘤转移及CRRT治疗12 h时的血小板计数、D-二聚体、CRP、PCT是脓毒症AKI恶性肿瘤患者28 d内死亡的独立危险因素(P均<0.05)。建立的logistic回归方程为联合预测因子=D-二聚体+2.134×血小板计数+3.451×CRP+4.160×PCT,若联合预测因子>293.124则提示患者28 d内死亡的风险较高。结论 脓毒症AKI恶性肿瘤患者CRRT治疗12 h时的D-二聚体、血小板计数、CRP和PCT可用于预测28 d内预后。
关键词:  凝血指标  脓毒症  恶性肿瘤  急性肾损伤  连续性肾脏替代治疗
DOI:10.16781/j.CN31-2187/R.20220496
投稿时间:2022-06-12修订日期:2023-02-23
基金项目:上海市自然科学基金(19ZR1456600).
Construction of a prognostic prediction model for malignant tumor patients with sepsis-induced acute kidney injury treated with continuous renal replacement therapy
XU Ye-hao1,DAI Yuan-qiang1,SUN Hao-ran2,WAN Xiao-jian2*
(1. Department of Anesthesiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University(Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China;
2. Department of Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University(Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China
*Corresponding author)
Abstract:
Objective To construct a prognostic prediction model for malignant tumor patients with sepsis-induced acute kidney injury (AKI) treated with continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) based on coagulation and inflammatory indicators. Methods Seventy-nine malignant tumor patients with sepsis-induced AKI treated with CRRT in our hospital from Jan. 2020 to Dec. 2021 were enrolled. They were divided into death group (n=20) and survival group (n=59) based on their prognosis within 28 d after CRRT. The baseline data and levels of coagulation and inflammation indicators were compared between the 2 groups before, 6 h and 12 h after CRRT, and variables with significant differences were included in the logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors that affect the prognosis of malignant tumor patients with sepsis-induced AKI. Results Compared with pre-treatment, the levels of platelet, D-dimer, fibrinogen, white blood cell, neutrophil ratio, C reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-8 were significantly decreased at 6 h and 12 h after CRRT, while the prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time and international normalized ratio were significantly increased (all P<0.05). Diabetes mellitus, hypertension, metastasis and levels of platelet, D-dimer, CRP and PCT at 12 h after CRRT were independent risk factors for the death of malignant tumor patients with sepsis-induced AKI within 28 d (all P<0.05). Logistic regression indicated that the prognosis prediction formula could be expressed by Y-union=D-dimer+2.134×platelet+ 3.451×CRP+4.160×PCT, and the threshold value>293.124 indicated a higher risk of death within 28 d. Conclusion Levels of D-dimer, platelet, CRP and PCT in malignant tumor patients with sepsis-induced AKI at 12 h after CRRT can be used to predict the prognosis within 28 d.
Key words:  coagulation index  sepsis  malignant neoplasms  acute kidney injury  continuous renal replacement therapy