| 摘要: |
| 目的 探讨状态转移队列模型在战时伤员伤情演变研究中的应用，以预测不同阶段伤员状态及数量，评估不同救治方案的救治效果。方法 以常见海战伤为例，采用专家访谈法获取伤员伤后不同时间节点、不同救治方案下转归概率数据，建立包括死亡、待后送和归队3种状态下的状态转移队列模型，预测不同救治方案下的伤员伤情演变及转归。结果 在假定有100名伤员被击中并处于受伤待后送的初始状态下，比较分析舰艇编队救护所医疗队的7种救治方案，结果显示方案4（伤员在受伤后10 min内接受初级急救、1 h内接受高级急救、3 h内接受早期救治）死亡人数最少（21.4人），归队人数最多（53.8人），救治效果最为显著。结论 状态转移队列模型在战时伤员伤情演变规律研究中具有潜在的应用价值，可为制定卫勤保障方案、调控保障行动提供有效的决策支持，但仍需进一步完善。 |
| 关键词: 状态转移队列模型 海战伤 伤情演变 救治方案 |
| DOI：10.16781/j.CN31-2187/R.20230498 |
| 投稿时间：2023-09-01修订日期：2023-12-13 |
| 基金项目:军队后勤理论研究课题（2022）. |
|
| Injury evolution of the wounded during wartime based on a state transition queue model |
| HAN Dan1,YAN Wentao2,QIN Chao2* |
(1. Demonstration Center of Military Logistics, School of Pharmacy, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China;
2. Department of Health Services, Faculty of Health Services, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China
*Corresponding author) |
| Abstract: |
| Objective To explore the application of a state transition queue model in the research of injury evolution of the wounded during wartime, so as to predict the number and state of the wounded at different phases and to evaluate the therapeutic effects of different treatment plans. Methods Taking common naval combat injuries as an example, we used the expert interview method to obtain the outcome probability data of the wounded at different time points and with different treatment plans. A state transition queue model comprising 3 states (death, pending evacuation, and returning to duty) was established to predict the evolution and outcomes of the wounded with different treatment plans. Results Assuming an initial state of 100 wounded pending evacuation, a comparative analysis of 7 treatment plans by the medical teams of the ship formation was conducted. The results showed that Plan 4 (primary first-aid within 10 min after the injury, advanced first-aid within 1 h, and early treatment within 3 h) resulted in the fewest deaths (21.4 individuals) and the highest number of returning to duty (53.8 individuals), indicating the most significant treatment effect. Conclusion The state transition queue model has potential value in studies of the injury evolution of the wounded during wartime, offering effective decision support for developing support plans and regulating support actions, but it still needs further refinement. |
| Key words: state transition queue model naval combat injuries injury evolution treatment plans |
