Multiplicative SARIMA model for prediction of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence
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Department of Navigation Special Damage Protection,Faculty of Naval Medicine,Second Military Medical University,Department of Pharmacy, General Hospital, PLA Chengdu Military Area Command,Department of Mathematics & Physics, College of Basic Sciences, Second Military Medical University,Office of Informatization, Division of Training, Second Military Medical University,Institute for Tuberculosis Research, No. 309 Hospital of PLA,Department of Navigation Special Damage Protection,Faculty of Naval Medicine,Second Military Medical University

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Supported by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2013M542491).

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    Abstract:

    Objective To examine the feasibility of using multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for predicting pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) incidence, so as to provide scientific evidence for the prevention and treatment of TB. Methods EViews 7.0.0.1 software was used to create a SARIMA fit model for seasonal incidence of TB on a monthly basis from January 2004 to December 2012, and the predicting performance of the model was tested with TB data from January to December in 2013. Results The established SARIMA (2,0,2)×(0,1,1)12 model could better fit with the previous TB incidence; and it basically well predicted the TB incidence of the 12 months of 2013, with the mean absolute error being 0.416 992 and the mean absolute error rate being 5.350 8%. Conclusion The established multiplicative SARIMA model can better simulate and predict the trend of TB incidence with time, and it may have a future in predicting the incidence of TB.

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History
  • Received:April 07,2016
  • Revised:May 23,2016
  • Adopted:August 26,2016
  • Online: August 26,2016
  • Published:
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