基于超声影像组学和机器学习算法构建浸润性乳腺癌无病生存期预测模型
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国家自然科学基金(81501492),上海市自然科学基金(20ZR1457900),上海市虹口区卫生健康委员会医学科研课题面上项目(虹卫2302-26),上海市虹口区卫生健康委员会临床重点扶持专科建设项目(HKLCFC202404),海军军医大学第二附属医院人才建设三年行动计划“金字塔人才工程”军事医学人才项目(1009),同济大学附属上海市第四人民医院科研启动专项(SYKYQD06101).


Development of a prediction model for disease-free survival in invasive breast cancer based on ultrasound radiomics and machine learning algorithms
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Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (81501492),Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai (20ZR1457900),General Program of Medical Research Project of Health Commission of Shanghai Hongkou District (HW2302-26),Clinical Key Supporting Project of Health Commission of Shanghai Hongkou District (HKLCFC202404),Military Medical Talent Project of “Pyramid Talent Program” of Three-year Action Plan for Talent Construction of The Second Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University (1009),and Science and Technology Initiation Project of Shanghai Fourth People’s Hospital Affiliated to Tongji University (SYKYQD06101).

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    摘要:

    目的 结合临床病理特征和超声影像组学特征构建预测浸润性乳腺癌患者无病生存期(DFS)的机器学习模型,并验证其可靠性。方法 回顾性纳入符合条件的浸润性乳腺癌患者978例,采集超声图像共4 414张,按患者例数比6∶2∶2分为训练集、验证集和测试集。采用Pyradiomics软件提取肿瘤超声影像组学(包括二维及彩色超声图像)特征,并应用t分布随机邻域嵌入(t-SNE)、最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)、相关系数进行数据降维,基于所选特征建立列线图预测模型。使用一致性指数(C-index)、ROC曲线的AUC、精确率、召回率、特异度、F1分数评价模型性能,使用Shapley可加性解释(SHAP)分析每个特征对模型预测的贡献。结果 经筛选最终得到与浸润性乳腺癌患者DFS事件密切相关的12个影像组学特征和6个临床病理特征,基于这些特征构建的列线图预测模型C-index、AUC、精确率、召回率、特异度、F1分数分别为0.787、0.827、0.623、0.701、0.812、0.584,SHAP分析表明影像组学评分(Rad-Score)对模型输出有显著的正向影响。结论 基于超声影像组学和机器学习算法构建的模型可有效预测浸润性乳腺癌患者DFS事件,且影像组学特征是浸润性乳腺癌DFS事件的独立预测因素。

    Abstract:

    Objective To develop and validate a machine learning model for predicting disease-free survival (DFS) in invasive breast cancer by integrating clinicopathologic and ultrasound-radiomics features. Methods A total of 978 eligible patients with invasive breast cancer were retrospectively enrolled, and 4 414 ultrasound images were collected and allocated to training, validation, and test sets at a patient-level ratio of 6∶2∶2. Pyradiomics software was employed to extract tumor ultrasound radiomic features (from both 2-dimensional and color Doppler images). Feature dimensionality reduction was performed using t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and correlation coefficients. The selected features were subsequently incorporated into a nomogram prediction model. Model performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), precision, recall, specificity, and F1-score. Additionally, the contribution of individual features to model predictions was quantified with Shapley additive explanations (SHAP). Results Twelve radiomic features and 6 clinicopathological features closely associated with DFS events in invasive breast cancer patients were ultimately selected. The nomogram model constructed from these features achieved a C-index of 0.787, AUC of 0.827, precision of 0.623, recall of 0.701, specificity of 0.812, and F1-score of 0.584. SHAP analysis revealed that the radiomics score (Rad-Score) exerted a significantly positive influence on model outputs. Conclusion The model based on ultrasound radiomics and machine learning algorithms can effectively predict DFS events in invasive breast cancer patients, with radiomic features serving as significant independent prognostic factors for DFS events.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-04
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-11
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-01-23
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