1990—2023年全球、不同区域和国家20~60岁人群食管癌的负担现状、变化趋势及未来预测
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河北省自然科学基金(H2021423030),河北省科研计划项目(2020001),河北中医药大学2025年研究生创新资助项目(XCXZZBS2025012).


Burden,trends and future projections of esophageal cancer among population aged 20-60 years globally,regionally,and nationally from 1990 to 2023
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Supported by Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province (H2021423030), Scientific Research Program of Hebei Province (2020001), and Graduate Student Innovation Funding Project of Hebei University of Chinese Medicine in 2025 (XCXZZBS2025012).

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    摘要:

    目的 探讨1990-2023年全球、不同区域及国家20~60岁人群食管癌的负担现状、变化趋势、未来预测及危险因素,为食管癌的防控工作提供依据。方法 基于2023年全球疾病负担研究数据库的数据,采用估计年度百分比变化、Joinpoint回归等方法分析食管癌负担趋势,运用年龄-时期-队列模型和因素分解等方法探究影响因素,并通过贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测2024-2050年食管癌负担趋势。结果 1990-2023年,全球20~60岁人群食管癌发病人数、患病人数、死亡人数、伤残调整生命年均呈上升趋势,而各项年龄标化率均呈下降趋势;男性疾病负担更重,不同区域和国家的发病模式存在差异;发病率随年龄增长显著升高。经预测,2024-2050年20~60岁人群食管癌的年龄标化患病率预计持续上升,其余标化率指标则呈先降后升趋势。吸烟、过量饮酒、蔬菜摄入不足及嚼烟是食管癌的主要危险因素,相关死亡率均已随时间显著下降,其中吸烟和过量饮酒相关死亡率的降幅最为明显。结论 需加强高负担地区食管癌的早期筛查与干预,结合危险因素强化一级预防并开展健康教育,以降低食管癌的发病风险。

    Abstract:

    Objective To investigate the current burden, temporal trends, future projections, and risk factors of esophageal cancer among population aged 20-60 years globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2023, so as to provide evidence for the prevention and control of esophageal cancer. Methods Based on data from the 2023 Global Burden of Disease Study database, trends in esophageal cancer burden were analyzed using estimated annual percentage change and Joinpoint regression, the influencing factors were examined using age-period-cohort model and breakdown analysis method, and the future projections from 2024 to 2050 were predicted using Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results From 1990 to 2023, the number of incident cases, the number of prevalent cases, the number of deaths, and disability-adjusted life years of esophageal cancer among population aged 20-60 years showed an increasing trend, while the age-standardized rates presented a decreasing trend; the disease burden was substantially higher in males; the incidence patterns varied across regions and countries; and the incidence significantly increased with age. According to the predictions, the age-standardized prevalence rate of esophageal cancer among population aged 20-60 years was expected to rise continuously from 2024 to 2050, while the other standardized rates were predicted to decrease first and then increase. Smoking, high alcohol consumption, a diet low in vegetables, and chewing tobacco were identified as the main risk factors of esophageal cancer, and the mortality related to these factors had significantly decreased over time, with the most obvious reductions observed for smoking and high alcohol consumption. Conclusion It is necessary to strengthen early screening and intervention of esophageal cancer in areas with a high burden. Primary prevention and health education should be enhanced in combination with risk factors to reduce the incidence risk of esophageal cancer.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-18
  • 出版日期: 2026-04-20
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