基于临床、常规超声和超声组学特征的多模态乳腺癌腋窝淋巴结转移术前预测模型:双中心研究
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泉州市科技计划项目(2022N003S).


Preoperative multimodal prediction model for axillary lymph node metastasis in breast cancer based on clinical, conventional ultrasound, and ultrasomics features: a two-center study
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Supported by Quanzhou Science and Technology Program (2022N003S).

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    摘要:

    目的 构建基于临床特征、常规超声参数及超声组学特征的多模态融合模型用于术前预测乳腺癌腋窝淋巴结转移(ALNM),并评估其跨中心泛化能力及临床应用价值。方法 回顾性纳入2020年1月1日至2025年1月1日联勤保障部队第九一〇医院(230例,按7∶3随机分为训练集和内部验证集,分别为161例、69例)与泉州市第一医院(91例,外部验证集)共321例乳腺癌患者。采用递归特征消除方法筛选临床和常规超声参数,采用最小绝对收缩和选择算子回归筛选超声组学特征,然后基于确立的最优算法glmnet构建临床模型(仅纳入临床和常规超声参数)、组学模型(仅纳入超声组学特征)和融合模型(纳入临床和常规超声参数及超声组学特征),并分别在训练集、内部验证集和外部验证集通过ROC曲线、Hosmer-Lemeshow检验、Brier分数、决策曲线分析(DCA)、净重分类指数(NRI)及综合判别改善指数(IDI)等方法评估各模型预测ALNM的性能与泛化能力。在同时接受前哨淋巴结活检(SLNB)与腋窝淋巴结清扫(ALND)的子集(n=142)中,对比融合模型与SLNB的诊断效能。在外部验证集中,采用ROC曲线的约登指数确定最优截断值并结合DCA临床获益风险比将患者划分为低、中、高危组,评估融合模型指导临床决策的能力;同时按分子分型(Luminal、人表皮生长因子受体2阳性、三阴性)及临床T分期进行亚组效能评价。结果 321例患者中ALNM阳性139例(43.3%)。共筛选出4个关键临床和常规超声特征及18个超声组学特征。在内部验证集与外部验证集中,融合模型AUC值分别为0.829(95%CI 0.779~0.878)与0.854(95%CI 0.810~0.898),均优于临床和组学模型;校准度优异(Hosmer-Lemeshow检验P=0.921、0.365,Brier分数为0.010、0.020),DCA显示融合模型在多数阈值概率范围内的净获益均最高,且以融合模型为参照时临床、组学模型的NRI与IDI均为负值。在对照子集中,融合模型预测ALNM的灵敏度为0.862,与SLNB(0.914)相比差异无统计学意义(McNemar检验P=0.286)。在分子分型与临床T分期亚组分析中,融合模型均能有效检出ALNM高危患者。结论 基于临床信息、常规超声与组学特征的多模态融合模型能够准确预测乳腺癌ALNM,且具备良好的稳定性、校准度与跨中心泛化能力,有望为术前腋窝淋巴结管理策略如是否行SLNB或ALND提供可靠的无创定量依据。

    Abstract:

    Objective To construct a multimodal fusion model integrating clinical features, conventional ultrasound parameters and ultrasomics features for preoperative prediction of axillary lymph node metastasis (ALNM) in breast cancer, and to evaluate its cross-center generalizability and clinical application value. Methods A total of 321 breast cancer patients were retrospectively enrolled from Jan. 1, 2020 to Jan. 1, 2025, including 230 patients from No. 910 Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force (randomly assigned to training set or internal validation set at a 7∶3 ratio, yielding 161 and 69 cases, respectively) and 91 patients from Quanzhou First Hospital (serving as external validation set). Recursive feature elimination method was adopted to screen clinical and conventional ultrasound parameters, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used to select ultrasomics features. Based on the optimal algorithm glmnet, a clinical model (incorporating only clinical and conventional ultrasound parameters), an ultrasomics model (incorporating only ultrasomics features), and a fusion model (incorporating clinical and conventional ultrasound parameters together with ultrasomics features) were established. The predictive performance and generalizability of each model for ALNM were evaluated in the training set, internal validation set, and external validation set using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Brier score, decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). In a subgroup of 142 patients who underwent both sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) and axillary lymph node dissection (ALND), the diagnostic efficacy was compared between the fusion model and SLNB. In the external validation set, based on the optimal cut-off value determined by the Youden index of ROC curve and the clinical benefit-to-risk ratio calculated by DCA, the patients were assigned to low-, intermediate-, or high-risk groups to evaluate the ability of the fusion model to guide clinical decision-making. Subgroup analyses stratified by molecular subtype (Luminal, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive, and triple-negative) or clinical T stage were further performed to assess performance of the fusion model. Results Among the 321 patients, 139 (43.3%) had positive ALNM. Four key clinical and conventional ultrasound parameters and 18 ultrasomics features were screened. In the internal and external validation sets, the area under curve (AUC) values of the fusion model were 0.829 (95% confidence interval [95%CI] 0.779-0.878) and 0.854 (95%CI 0.810-0.898), respectively, which were superior to those of the clinical and ultrasomics models. The fusion model showed excellent calibration, with Hosmer-Lemeshow test P values of 0.921 and 0.365, and Brier scores of 0.010 and 0.020 in the internal and external validation sets, respectively. DCA demonstrated that the fusion model yielded the highest net benefit across most threshold probability ranges. With the fusion model as the reference, the clinical model and ultrasomics model had negative NRI and IDI values. In the comparison subgroup, the sensitivity of the fusion model for predicting ALNM was 0.862, showing no significant difference compared with SLNB (sensitivity=0.914, McNemar test P=0.286). In the subgroup analyses by molecular subtype or clinical T stage, the fusion model effectively identified patients at high risk for ALNM. Conclusion The multimodal fusion model based on clinical, conventional ultrasound, and ultrasomics features can accurately predict ALNM in breast cancer, with favorable stability, calibration, and cross-center generalizability. This model is expected to provide a reliable non-invasive quantitative basis for preoperative axillary lymph node management strategies, including decision-making regarding SLNB or ALND.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-11
  • 最后修改日期:2026-02-28
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-28
  • 出版日期: 2026-08-20
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