基于临床、MRI、穿刺活检指标构建预测前列腺癌患者盆腔淋巴结转移的列线图模型
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海军军医大学校级课题(2022QN047).


Development of a nomogram model for predicting pelvic lymph node metastasis in prostate cancer patients based on clinical, MRI, and puncture biopsy parameters
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Supported by Project of Naval Medical University (2022QN047).

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    目的 基于临床、MRI及穿刺活检病理特征构建预测前列腺癌患者盆腔淋巴结转移的列线图模型,并评估其诊断性能。方法 回顾性纳入2013年1月至2024年6月于我院诊断为前列腺癌且接受根治性前列腺切除+扩大盆腔淋巴结清扫术的患者。收集患者的临床、MRI及穿刺活检数据,通过最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)回归和二元多因素logistic回归筛选出盆腔淋巴结转移的独立预测因子并构建列线图模型。采用ROC曲线、校准曲线和决策曲线分析评估模型性能。结果 共纳入538例前列腺癌患者,通过LASSO回归和二元多因素logistic回归筛选出年龄、肿瘤最大径、临床T分期、前列腺特异性抗原密度、活检国际泌尿病理学会分级、欧洲泌尿生殖放射学会评分是前列腺癌患者盆腔淋巴结转移的独立预测因子,均纳入列线图模型。该列线图模型预测前列腺癌盆腔淋巴结转移的AUC值为0.88(95%CI 0.84~0.92);平均C-index为0.877(95%CI 0.862~0.884),表现出良好的稳定性;在阈值概率0.01~0.75及0.81~0.99范围内的净获益均优于“全部清扫”或“全部不清扫”策略。结论 基于常规临床、MRI及穿刺活检病理特征构建的列线图模型能够预测前列腺癌患者盆腔淋巴结转移风险,可为确定前列腺癌患者淋巴结清扫及术后辅助治疗策略提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    Objective To develop a nomogram model for predicting pelvic lymph node metastasis in prostate cancer patients based on clinical, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and biopsy pathological features, and to evaluate its diagnostic performance. Methods Patients who were diagnosed with prostate cancer and underwent radical prostatectomy plus extended pelvic lymph node dissection at our hospital from Jan. 2013 to Jun. 2024 were retrospectively enrolled. The clinical, MRI, and biopsy data were collected. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and binary multivariate logistic regression were used to identify independent predictors for pelvic lymph node metastasis, which were then incorporated to construct a nomogram model. The performance of the nomogram model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. Results A total of 538 patients with prostate cancer were included. Age, maximum diameter of tumor, clinical T stage, prostate-specific antigen density, biopsy International Society of Urological Pathology grade, and European Society of Urogenital Radiology score were identified by LASSO regression and binary multivariate logistic regression as independent predictors for pelvic lymph node metastasis in patients with prostate cancer; these variables were incorporated into the nomogram model. The area under the ROC curve of the nomogram for predicting pelvic lymph node metastasis in prostate cancer patients was 0.88 (95% confidence interval [95%CI] 0.84-0.92). The mean C-index of the model was 0.877 (95%CI 0.862-0.884), indicating good stability. The model provided greater net benefit than either the “treat-all” or “treat-none” strategies across threshold probability ranges of 0.01-0.75 and 0.81-0.99. Conclusion The nomogram model constructed using routine clinical, MRI, and biopsy pathological features can predict the risk of pelvic lymph node metastasis in patients with prostate cancer. This model may provide a scientific basis for determining lymph node dissection strategies and postoperative adjuvant treatment decisions.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-03
  • 最后修改日期:2026-02-28
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-28
  • 出版日期: 2026-08-20
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