全球视野下中国克罗恩病流行转型的时空演变与病因学推断:基于GBD 2023数据与多表型孟德尔随机化分析
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贵州省中医药管理局中医药、民族医药科学技术研究项目(QZYY2024175),贵州中医药大学第一附属医院中医药传承创新人才团队项目(GZYYFY2025001).


Spatiotemporal evolution and etiological inference of epidemiological transition of Crohn’s disease in China from a global perspective: based on GBD 2023 data and a multi-phenotype Mendelian randomization study
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Supported by Traditional Chinese Medicine and Ethnic Medical Science and Technology Research Project of Guizhou Provincial Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine (QZYY2024175) and Traditional Chinese Medicine Inheritance and Innovation Talent Team Project of The First Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine (GZYYFY2025001).

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    目的 分析全球与中国克罗恩病负担的时空演变轨迹,探究伴随饮食西化产生的代谢重塑与不良生活习惯在克罗恩病发病激增中的潜在因果作用。方法 基于全球疾病负担研究2023数据,利用Joinpoint回归和年龄-时期-队列模型解析1990-2023年克罗恩病的流行趋势与潜在时期效应,并利用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)模型预测2024-2035年疾病负担。同时基于全基因组关联研究汇总数据,通过多表型孟德尔随机化(MR)分析评估单一膳食成分、饮酒及继发体脂分布特征与克罗恩病的因果关联。结果 全球克罗恩病发病率已趋于平台期,而中国发病率正处于快速上升期(平均年度变化百分比为2.291%),且存在发病年轻化及2004-2013年的显著时期激增。MR主分析显示,单一食物成分或整体BMI并非克罗恩病发病的主要原因,而躯干脂肪质量(OR=1.76,P=0.016)及体脂率(OR=2.35,P=0.024)的增加以及酒精摄入(OR=2.45,P=0.040)增加了克罗恩病发病风险。BAPC模型预测显示,中国克罗恩病发病及患病率将在未来10年反弹增长。结论 中国克罗恩病负担的快速增长不仅与诊断水平提高有关,更可能与不良生活方式所致的向心性肥胖及肠道屏障破坏密切相关。未来应将防控关口前移,重点针对青年人群开展体脂管理与健康教育,以应对即将到来的高患病率压力。

    Abstract:

    Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of the global and Chinese burden of Crohn's disease, and to explore the potential causal roles of metabolic remodeling and unhealthy lifestyles accompanying Westernized dietary in the surging incidence of Crohn's disease. Methods Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2023, the epidemiological trends and underlying period effects of Crohn's disease from 1990 to 2023 were dissected by Joinpoint regression and an age-period-cohort model, and the disease burden from 2024 to 2035 was predicted by a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. Meanwhile, multi-phenotype Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed based on the genome-wide association study summary data to evaluate the causal associations of isolated dietary components, alcohol consumption, and secondary body fat distribution traits with Crohn's disease. Results Globally, the incidence of Crohn's disease had plateaued, while the incidence in China was in a rapid ascending phase (average annual percentage change: 2.291%), characterized by a younger age of onset and a marked period-based surge from 2004 to 2013. Primary MR analysis showed that neither isolated dietary components nor overall body mass index (BMI) represented major risk factors for Crohn's disease, whereas elevated trunk fat mass (OR=1.76, P=0.016), higher body fat percentage (OR=2.35, P=0.024), and alcohol consumption (OR=2.45, P=0.040) increased the risk of Crohn's disease. BAPC model projections revealed that the incidence and prevalence of Crohn's disease in China will rebound and grow over the next decade. Conclusion The rapid rise in Crohn's disease burden in China is not only related to improved diagnostic capability, but also more likely to be closely associated with central obesity and gut barrier disruption caused by unhealthy lifestyles. In the future, early prevention and control should be prioritized, particularly body fat management and health education for young adults, to address the upcoming burden of high disease prevalence.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-03-22
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-11
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-28
  • 出版日期: 2026-08-20
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