Abstract:Objective To analyze the disease burden, risk structure, population distribution, and future trends of 3 major etiology-specific chronic kidney diseases (CKDs) attributable to metabolic and lifestyle-related risk factors in China from 1990 to 2023 based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (GBD 2023). Methods The disability-adjusted life year (DALY) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) data of chronic kidney disease due to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM-CKD), chronic kidney disease due to hypertension (HTN-CKD), and chronic kidney disease due to glomerulonephritis (GN-CKD) attributable to 8 metabolic and lifestyle-related risk factors in China were obtained from the GBD 2023 database. The burden changes in China and traditional BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) in 1990 and 2023 were analyzed. Gender- and age-stratified analyses were performed, and the future trends from 2024 to 2035 were projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were calculated using a log-linear regression model fitted to annual ASDRs from 1990 to 2023. Meanwhile, the internal composition ratios of the 8 risk factors were calculated to characterize the evolution of the risk structure. Results From 1990 to 2023, the overall DALYs of the 3 types of CKDs attributable to 8 risk factors in China were increased, whereas the changes in ASDRs diverged. For GN-CKD, high fasting plasma glucose remained the leading attributable risk factor, with an EAPC of the ASDR of -3.98% (95%CI -4.44% to -3.53%), and its internal composition ratio decreased from 65.9% in 1990 to 39.5% in 2023; the composition ratio attributable to high systolic blood pressure increased from 12.1% to 27.3%. For HTN-CKD, high systolic blood pressure remained the predominant attributable risk factor, with an EAPC of the ASDR of -0.60% (95%CI -0.85% to -0.34%); the EAPC of the ASDR attributable to high body mass index (BMI) was 0.69% (95%CI 0.42% to 0.96%). T2DM-CKD showed the greatest increase in absolute burden, with high fasting plasma glucose and high BMI consistently ranking as the top 2 risk factors; the EAPC of the ASDR attributable to high fasting plasma glucose was -1.33% (95%CI -1.45% to -1.20%). The attributable burden of all risk factors for the 3 etiology-specific CKDs was predominantly concentrated among individuals aged 50 years and older. Among traditional BRICS countries, GN-CKD showed the highest heterogeneity in risk structure, while HTN-CKD showed the highest consistency. ARIMA projections suggested that the attributable burden of GN-CKD would generally decline from 2024 to 2035, while the burdens of HTN-CKD and T2DM-CKD would continue to rise. Conclusion From 1990 to 2023, the absolute burden attributable to metabolic and lifestyle-related risk factors for the 3 major etiology-specific CKDs in China has continued to expand, but the risk structures and temporal trends differ substantially. The rise in absolute burden and decline in ASDR suggest that population aging and population growth are important contextual factors driving CKD burden expansion. Etiology- and age-specific integrated management strategies targeting glycemia and body weight control, blood pressure control and salt reduction, and specialist follow-up may be the keys for reducing the future burden of CKDs.