中国3种主要病因特异性慢性肾脏病归因于代谢与生活方式相关危险因素的疾病负担及变化趋势
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国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(82305387),深圳市中医药学会项目(2024020),广东省中医药管理局面上项目(20251324),福田区卫生健康局项目(FTWS2025045),深圳市龙华区医疗卫生机构区级科研项目(2022013).


Burden and temporal trends of 3 major etiology-specific chronic kidney diseases attributable to metabolic and lifestyle-related risk factors in China
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Supported by Young Scientist Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China (82305387), Program of Shenzhen Association of Traditional Chinese Medicine (2024020), General Program of Guangdong Provincial Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine (20251324), Health Bureau Program of Futian District (FTWS2025045), and District-level Scientific Research Project of Medical and Health Institution of Shenzhen Longhua District (2022013).

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    摘要:

    目的 基于全球疾病负担研究2023(GBD 2023)数据,分析1990-2023年中国3种主要病因特异性慢性肾脏病(CKD)归因于代谢与生活方式相关危险因素的疾病负担变化、风险结构、人群分布及未来趋势。方法 基于GBD 2023数据库,提取中国2型糖尿病所致慢性肾脏病(T2DM-CKD)、高血压所致慢性肾脏病(HTN-CKD)和肾小球肾炎所致慢性肾脏病(GN-CKD)归因于8项代谢与生活方式相关危险因素的伤残调整生命年(DALY)及年龄标化DALY率(ASDR)数据。分析1990年与2023年中国及传统金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)的疾病负担变化,并进行性别、年龄分层分析和2024-2035年自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIMA)预测。采用1990-2023年逐年ASDR的对数线性回归模型计算估计年度变化百分比(EAPC)及其95%CI;同时计算8项危险因素内部构成比以描述风险结构演变。结果 1990-2023年,中国3种CKD归因8项危险因素DALY总体增加,但ASDR变化分化。在GN-CKD中,高空腹血糖始终为首位归因危险因素,其ASDR的EAPC为-3.98%(95%CI -4.44%~-3.53%),内部构成比由1990年的65.9%降至2023年的39.5%;高收缩压构成比由12.1%升至27.3%。HTN-CKD始终以高收缩压为首位归因危险因素,其ASDR的EAPC为-0.60%(95%CI -0.85%~-0.34%),但高BMI归因ASDR的EAPC为0.69%(95%CI 0.42%~0.96%)。T2DM-CKD绝对负担增幅最大,高空腹血糖和高BMI长期居前2位,其中高空腹血糖归因ASDR的EAPC为-1.33%(95%CI -1.45%~-1.20%)。3种病因特异性CKD各危险因素归因负担明显向50岁及以上人群聚集。传统金砖国家间GN-CKD风险构成异质性最强,HTN-CKD一致性最高。ARIMA预测显示,2024-2035年GN-CKD归因负担总体下降,而HTN-CKD和T2DM-CKD仍将持续上升。结论 1990-2023年,中国3种主要病因特异性CKD归因于代谢与生活方式相关危险因素的绝对负担持续扩张,但风险结构和变化趋势存在明显分化。绝对负担上升而ASDR下降提示人口老龄化和人口规模增长是CKD负担扩张的重要背景。分病因、分年龄实施血糖-体重、血压-限盐及专科随访协同管理,可能是未来降低CKD负担的关键。

    Abstract:

    Objective To analyze the disease burden, risk structure, population distribution, and future trends of 3 major etiology-specific chronic kidney diseases (CKDs) attributable to metabolic and lifestyle-related risk factors in China from 1990 to 2023 based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (GBD 2023). Methods The disability-adjusted life year (DALY) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) data of chronic kidney disease due to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM-CKD), chronic kidney disease due to hypertension (HTN-CKD), and chronic kidney disease due to glomerulonephritis (GN-CKD) attributable to 8 metabolic and lifestyle-related risk factors in China were obtained from the GBD 2023 database. The burden changes in China and traditional BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) in 1990 and 2023 were analyzed. Gender- and age-stratified analyses were performed, and the future trends from 2024 to 2035 were projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were calculated using a log-linear regression model fitted to annual ASDRs from 1990 to 2023. Meanwhile, the internal composition ratios of the 8 risk factors were calculated to characterize the evolution of the risk structure. Results From 1990 to 2023, the overall DALYs of the 3 types of CKDs attributable to 8 risk factors in China were increased, whereas the changes in ASDRs diverged. For GN-CKD, high fasting plasma glucose remained the leading attributable risk factor, with an EAPC of the ASDR of -3.98% (95%CI -4.44% to -3.53%), and its internal composition ratio decreased from 65.9% in 1990 to 39.5% in 2023; the composition ratio attributable to high systolic blood pressure increased from 12.1% to 27.3%. For HTN-CKD, high systolic blood pressure remained the predominant attributable risk factor, with an EAPC of the ASDR of -0.60% (95%CI -0.85% to -0.34%); the EAPC of the ASDR attributable to high body mass index (BMI) was 0.69% (95%CI 0.42% to 0.96%). T2DM-CKD showed the greatest increase in absolute burden, with high fasting plasma glucose and high BMI consistently ranking as the top 2 risk factors; the EAPC of the ASDR attributable to high fasting plasma glucose was -1.33% (95%CI -1.45% to -1.20%). The attributable burden of all risk factors for the 3 etiology-specific CKDs was predominantly concentrated among individuals aged 50 years and older. Among traditional BRICS countries, GN-CKD showed the highest heterogeneity in risk structure, while HTN-CKD showed the highest consistency. ARIMA projections suggested that the attributable burden of GN-CKD would generally decline from 2024 to 2035, while the burdens of HTN-CKD and T2DM-CKD would continue to rise. Conclusion From 1990 to 2023, the absolute burden attributable to metabolic and lifestyle-related risk factors for the 3 major etiology-specific CKDs in China has continued to expand, but the risk structures and temporal trends differ substantially. The rise in absolute burden and decline in ASDR suggest that population aging and population growth are important contextual factors driving CKD burden expansion. Etiology- and age-specific integrated management strategies targeting glycemia and body weight control, blood pressure control and salt reduction, and specialist follow-up may be the keys for reducing the future burden of CKDs.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-03-18
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-11
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-28
  • 出版日期: 2026-08-20
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