| 摘要: |
| 目的：加强公共卫生突发事件预警的理论与方法研究，在发生突发事件时能及时获取信息，正确分析形势，有效采取措施。方法：对公共卫生突发事件脆弱性的基本内涵及其脆弱因子进行探讨，对当前人群健康脆弱性评估的指标体系和评估的方法进行系统研究，运用可拓理论和脆弱性评价理论进行预警实践。结果：构建了基于公共卫生突发事件脆弱性评价基础上的多指标危机预警可拓模型，并对某地区的人群健康状况进行了评价。结论：将环境科学中的脆弱性评价引入突发公共卫生预警领域，通过建立人群健康脆弱性评估模型，可对某地区的基于公共卫生威胁的人群健康状况进行评价。 |
| 关键词: 脆弱性 预警 可拓理论 模型 |
| DOI：10.3724/SP.J.1008.2007.01116 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（70340015）. |
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| Application of vulnerability appraising in constructing theoretical model for early warning of emergent public health event |
| FAN Chenfang1, YANG Yifeng2, CAO Guangwen2* |
| (1. People’s Military Medical Press, Department of General Logistics of PLA, Beijing 100082, China; 2. Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Health Services,Second Military Medical University, Shanghai 200433) |
| Abstract: |
| Objective：To strengthen the research on theory and method of early warning for emergent public health event, so as to obtain timely information, correctly analyze the situation, and apply effective measures when the event happens. Methods: The definition of vulnerability of emergent public health event and the vulnerability factors were discussed. The indicator system and the evaluating method for public health vulnerability were systematically studied. The extenics theory and the theory of vulnerability evaluation were used for warning exercise. Results: We constructed an extenics model for early warning of emergent public health event; the model was used to evaluate the public health of a population. Conclusion: The theory of vulnerability evaluation is introduced in emergent public health event to construct an extenics model for early warning of emergent public health event; the model can be used to evaluate the public health of certain population. |
| Key words: vulnerability early warning extenics model |
