| 摘要: |
| 目的 探讨重庆市涂阳肺结核月发病数随时间的变化规律,为控制和预防肺结核提供科学依据。方法 采用SPSS13.0软件对2005～2009年重庆市涂阳肺结核月发病数资料建立ARIMA模型,利用该模型预测2010年1月～12月的涂阳肺结核月发病数,对模型的短期预测及其效果进行初步评价。结果 建立的ARIMA(1,1,0)×(0,1,1)12模型是拟合重庆市涂阳肺结核月发病数的合适模型,2005～2009年观测值落在拟合值95%的可信区间内,2010年预测值的平均相对误差为6.31%。结论 ARIMA(1,1,0)×(0,1,1)12模型能很好地预测重庆市涂阳肺结核月发病情况,为控制和预防肺结核提供了可靠依据。 |
| 关键词: ARIMA模型 肺结核 预测 发病率 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2013-03-01修订日期：2013-08-02 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金 (30872160),重庆市科委自然科学基金(CSTC,2009BB5415). |
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| Application of ARIMA model in forecasting monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis |
| YANG Hai-qin1,HU Dai-yu2,LIU Ying2,WANG Run-hua1,YI Jing1* |
(1. Department of Health Statistics and Information Management, College of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China
2. Department of Chongqing Tuberculosis Prevention, Chongqing 400020, China
*Corresponding author.) |
| Abstract: |
| Objective To investigate the variation of the monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis with time in Chongqing, so to provide a scientific evidence for the control and prevention of tuberculosis. Methods Using the SPSS 13.0 software, we established an ARIMA model with the monthly incidence data of smear-positive tuberculosis (2005-2009), and the model was used to forecast the monthly incidence of Jan. 2010 to Dec. 2010. The short-term forecasting efficacy was evaluated. Results The established ARIMA (1,1,0)×(0,1,1)12 model was suitable for forecasting the monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis in Chongqing. The observed values of 2005-2009 were in the 95% confidence interval of the fitted values, and the average relative error of the predictive value was 6.31% for 2010. Conclusion ARIMA (1,1,0)×(0,1,1)12 model can satisfactorily forecast the monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis in Chongqing, which provides a reliable evidence for control and prevention of tuberculosis. |
| Key words: ARIMA model pulmonary tuberculosis forecasting incidence |
