| 摘要: |
| 海军大型战斗舰艇作为一种重要的海上作战平台，内部空间紧凑，编制人员密集，一旦发生传染病极易流行。因此，选择适用于该环境的传染病预测模型对卫生防疫工作的顺利开展非常重要。本文介绍了4个经典的传染病动力学模型，总结了各类仓室模型及其关键特征，并就常见的几种实际模拟需求展开讨论，以期能帮助相关卫勤人员应对诸如新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控等卫生防疫工作中的挑战。 |
| 关键词: 传染病数学建模 易感-感染-恢复模型 动力学模型 预测模型 仓室模型 新型冠状病毒肺炎 卫生防疫 大型战斗舰艇 |
| DOI：10.16781/j.CN31-2187/R.20210959 |
| 投稿时间：2021-09-12修订日期：2021-12-07 |
| 基金项目:上海市浦江人才计划(15PJC097),军队生物安全专项(20SWAQX46),军队后勤重点项目(BS218R006),军队双重支持项目 |
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| Selection of forecasting models for infectious diseases in large warships |
| QI Liang1,LIU Xiao-rong2* |
(1. Department of Health Services, Faculty of Health Services, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China;
2. Naval Medical Service Training Base, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China
*Corresponding author) |
| Abstract: |
| As important combat platforms, large warships have the characteristics of compact internal space and dense personnel. Once infectious diseases occur, they are very easy to spread. Therefore, it is very important to select suitable forecasting models for infectious diseases in this environment. This paper introduces 4 classic dynamics models of infectious diseases, summarizes various kinds of compartmental models and their key characteristics, and discusses several common practical simulation requirements, helping relevant health personnel to cope with the challenges in health and epidemic prevention such as the prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019. |
| Key words: mathematical modelling of infectious diseases susceptible-infected-recovered model dynamics model forecasting model compartmental model coronavirus disease 2019 health and epidemic prevention large warship |
