| 摘要: |
| 目的 分析新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）的流行病学特征和发展趋势，评价我国及其他国家防控措施对疫情的影响，为进一步预测疫情发展和制定针对性的防控措施提供依据。方法 收集2020年1月10日至3月30日国家卫生健康委员会及全国各省市卫生健康委员会统计及发布的国内COVID-19疫情报告，以及截至2020年4月16日各疫情国家的病例报告及WHO每日公布的COVID-19统计数据。从我国各地区COVID-19患者的确诊病例数、病死率、危重率和治愈率等方面对COVID-19流行病学特征进行描述，分析我国各地区疫情发展变化趋势及防控措施的效果，并与疫情较严重的美国和意大利的疫情防控效果进行比较。结果 COVID-19疫情呈现暴发流行特点，病例数上升速度快。我国31个省市自治区及港澳台地区均出现COVID-19患者；COVID-19在全国的病死率为4.01%（3 314/82 545），武汉市为5.10%（2 548/50 006），湖北省（除武汉市）为3.59%（639/17 795）；COVID-19在全国的平均治愈率为92.34%（76 225/82 545）。在采取限制交通和人员流动的措施后，武汉市新增病例占全国大部分，但全国（除湖北省）的平均日新增确诊病例由原来521.00例下降到474.40例；在采取集中隔离治疗措施后，武汉市平均日新增死亡人数由72.33例下降至38.35例，全国平均日新增死亡人数由97.87例下降至47.61例。在中国、美国和意大利3个国家中中国采取的防控措施强度最大，病例增加速度最慢。结论 COVID-19在全国各地区均有分布。我国采取的防控措施有效遏制了疫情进展，相对美国、意大利，我国采取的防控措施更为迅速、效果更显著。 |
| 关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎 暴发流行 流行病学 传染病控制 |
| DOI：10.16781/j.0258-879x.2020.12.1404 |
| 投稿时间：2020-03-07修订日期：2020-10-05 |
| 基金项目:全军后勤科研重大项目（AWS16J023），国家科技部传染病重大专项（2018ZX10101003-001-003），国家自然科学基金新型冠状病毒肺炎专项（82041022），上海市科学技术委员会研究项目（20431900404，20JC1410202）. |
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| Analyses of epidemiological characteristics and anti-epidemic measures of coronavirus disease 2019 |
| CHEN Jian,TANG Wei-na,CAI Peng,CHEN Xi,ZHANG Hong-wei,YIN Jian-hua* |
(Department of Navy Epidemiology, Faculty of Naval Medicine, Naval Medical University(Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China
*Corresponding author) |
| Abstract: |
| Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and development trend of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the impact of prevention and control measures on the epidemic in China and other countries, so as to provide a basis for further prediction of the epidemic development and formulation of targeted prevention and control measures. Methods The statistics of domestic epidemic situation released by the provincial and municipal health committees and National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China from Jan. 10 to Mar. 30, 2020 were collected, as well as the daily data and papers of COVID-19 published by the epidemic countries and the World Health Organization until Apr. 16, 2020. The epidemiological characteristics (including the number of confirmed cases, fatality rate, critical rate and cure rate, etc.) were used to analyze the epidemic development and the effects of prevention and control measures in different regions of China, and they were compared with the epidemic prevention and control effects of the United States and Italy. Results The epidemic showed the characteristics of outbreak, and the cases increased rapidly. COVID-19 infection was found in 31 provincial-level regions in Chinese mainland, Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions and Taiwan Province. The mortality rates were 4.01% (3 314/82 545), 5.10% (2 548/50 006) and 3.59% (639/17 795) in China, Wuhan and Hubei (excluding Wuhan), respectively. The national average cure rate was 92.34% (76 225/82 545). The new cases in Wuhan were the most in the country after restricting traffic and personnel flow, and the average newly diagnosed cases outside Hubei dropped from 521.00 to 474.40 cases. The average daily deaths decreased from 72.33 to 38.35 in Wuhan and 97.87 to 47.61 in the whole country after treating patients in isolation. Compared with the United States and Italy, China took the most effective measures and had the lowest rate of case increase. Conclusion COVID-19 has been found in all provincial-level regions of China. The prevention and control measures in China have effectively contained the progress of the epidemic. Compared with the United States and Italy, prevention and control measures in China are more prompt and effective. |
| Key words: coronavirus disease 2019 disease outbreaks epidemiology communicable disease control |
